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Common prep mistakes-FerFAL
Interesting article on what NOT TO DO. It amazes me that there are regulars on GIM who don't think they need to prep. I guess until the wolf digs his fangs into YOUR azz, yeah ur safe..
Common Prepper Fallacies - FerFAL There’s simply some preparations that make little sense if you think about it, others that I’ve seen that just wouldn’t work, in spite of all the speculations. a) Maybe the one that rubs me the wrong way the most concerns retreats. It’s also something many survivalists consider the summit of their preparations. A self sufficient fortification-ranch, with the nearest neighbor several miles away. Isolated farms or retreats are targeted and are often victims of robbery and in some cases extremely violent home invasions. You may have 6-10 able men you are counting on to defend it when TSHTF… “when TSHTF” …so they aren’t there right now? Then you don’t have them, nor will you have them when you need them, most likely. The isolation works to the attackers favor, who often take their time having their way with everything and everyone inside the house. The “away from everything” theory just doesn’t work when taken to the field. Happens here and same happens in Africa where ranchers and farmers have to fight rebels, rogues or whatever they are calling them these days. They’ll find you, they’ll know about you one way or the other. You cant hide simply by living a gas tank away from the city. If there’s a road that reaches your place, you are fair game, doesn’t matter if it’s a dirt road in poor condition. You get there with a car/truck? So can bad guys. You are obviously safer from small time robberies or pickpocketers and snathcers, but you are more vulnerable to the worst kind of criminals. Not that living in a city or suburbs makes it MUCH safer, but I’d rather live here where I live now than in a farm house any day of the week. People can somehow organize to hire security, talk to the police. Yes, most people border idiotic and are pretty clueless, but it’s better than being alone with no chance of even trying to convince people. I’m not talking about living in a large city being the best option, I’m talking about living in a small town or community, looking for safety in numbers but avoiding the problems of a metropolis. I definitely would choose a house in a small town or subdivision near a city, rather than a far away retreat. Rather than looking for the ultimate self reliance retreat in the middle of nowhere, look for a subdivision where you have enough land, where you can keep a small orchard and some small critters if you want, a place with a basement where you can build a NBC shelter as time and money allows. That’s what I’d look forward to if living in US. b) The barter items thing is also pretty strange. I don’t see how it could possibly be a smart idea to buy goods to sell or trade after a crisis, surely not in the quantities suggested by some people. Beats me, are they going to set up a shop in their garages and sell everything? Would you buy food an other supplies from a guy that sells it with no possible way of verifying the conditions under which the food was kept? How much of a profit could you possibly make , comparing to having saved that same amount of money in gold, for example? I don’t understand it and I don’t know of anyone that made a profit by doing this. Yet, people stock up on TP and many other cheap, easily obtainable items thinking that it will be “worth it’s weight in gold” after the crisis. Newsflash: if it’s cheap and easy to produce, it will keep being that way AFTER tshtf. Some guys advice to “invest” in such goods, tools, food and supplies for after TSHTF. No, no , no. 200 or 500 bucks worth of tools rusting away in the shed is not an investment. Its’ 200 bucks worth of tools for which you don’t have any use. That’s not an investment. An investment generates money, while products rotting away in some basement does nothing for you. c) Forgetting about their financial security. I’d worry about REAL investments. Buying real estate that will provide me with a steady income on the longer run, an investment portfolio divided in a couple of reliable ( or as reliable as any organization can be) that will slowly grow, most of it set on minimum and medium risk investments, and not falling for the promises of high risk ones. Money is so important, I cant begin to explain it. When prices skyrocket beyond the limits of superinflation, money does not turn into toilet paper as many survival experts predict, it become cherished, more valuable to you than ever. You have to turn yourself into a discriminating shopper, always looking for the best possible price, sometimes shopping in different branches of supermarkets so as to find the better deals and avoid those “hot” items grocery chains slip without you even noticing. My father is visiting right now, handling business, and one thing he told me when I asked how did he see things going on here, he used the words “cheapskate” and “miserly”. He said something like“ People count coins over and over, by the cent, and spend maybe 10 minutes thinking about spending every cent. They also look kind of shabby, untidy, I can’t explain it. Even the guys running around downtown with suits look bad” I explained that his overall perception was indeed correct, mostly because the average person here uses clothes until they wear out, there’s not that much money left for looks, not getting haircuts as often as they should, shaving. Yes, the fall on the purchasing power of people did affect the average person ( at least most of them if not all) and you can see it on the streets. d) Not all places are equal in terms of crime, but if something like this happens in US, I’d worry about being armed at all times, and learning how to use it to defend myself. Again, not talking about waiting for the end of the world to bug in and pull the shotgun out of the firing ports, go on with your life but to do armed. Most people here don’t see things this way. The anti gun campaign in very strong here, and the majority of “sheep” see guns as evil objects, even though rape, crime and violence is smeared on their face every day. What can I say, most people are pretty stupid. Those of us who go armed in this country are a reduced minority. After a few words, we recognize each other at the range or at gunshops with a knowing nod, knowing that most people, even among shooters , don’t share our opinions. Even among “gun people” we have our important share of “Zumbos”, elitist hunters who think that firearms are hunting tools and shouldn’t be used by the lesser “civilians” for self defense. d)Not trying to bore anyone to death here or anything, but going back to the issue of money. It’s so important to be financially set. Rather than spending tons of money on junk you wont ever use invest it smartly. Rich, unprepared people will suffer after TSHF… only in your wildest dreams. Money buys everything, including expensive food, medical care, security and relocation if needed. When the economy collapses a big chunk of what used to be middle class ( 50% as minimum, more for sure) ends up being poor. It doesn’t matter how much guns you have, doesn’t matter if you can start a fire with a couple of Popsicles sticks or build an atomic bomb with a Snickers bar and a paper clip. Skills are of course important but you finances affect everything. If you are middle class do everything you can to improve, climb way up the ladder. No I’m not talking about making more money than Bill Gates, I’m just talking about something every determined middle class person can achieve , no need to be a freaking financial genius. Make sure you climb your way up to the upper middle class, because once the pyramid starts sinking you don’t want to be below the 50%. If you are really serious about financial security, diversify your real estate and other investments in different countries. My father did this and it made all the difference in the world. The man is my hero. When you see serious trouble in the horizon and survivalists are thinking about bunkering in their cabins, you simply go on vacations to check out that little apartment or house you bought in Costa Rica for a bunch of pocket change a month. If Zombies take over or China invades, you can look for a job there, or live like a king thanks to the income you receive from that other apartment you have in France, a place in a small town near a mayor University, which you rent to students each year.600 Euros a month will allow you to live comfortably in Costa Rica, and most countries in South America. And the best part of all this? If nothing EVER happens you just have a few properties here and there that are constantly generating money for you, in case you want to retire early or if you ever have a health problem or any other issue that puts you out of the job market. Again, a couple of properties here and there inst’ such a big deal, most people can achieve that with a bit of effort, its’ just a matter of priorities. e)The lack of reality based preparations. Some people focus on preparing for something that will never happen, preparing for getting up one day and walking into Mad Max’s world. This is of course, not a smart idea. Not only are you forgetting about the other, more likely possibilities, but you also ignore that you’ll have to go trough them before it reaches to a road warrior point, if it ever gets to that. People that have thousands and thousands of dollars in tools, equipment, and maybe spent hundreds of thousands more building the ultimate retreat, but don’t have a penny invested anywhere. When asked they‘ll say that it will all be worth nothing when TSHTF. Hopefully, this person will have several years worth of food along with all the other stuff he’ll rarely get to use, so at least he wont starve to death. But is eating all you aspire for in live? Not to mention what would happen if he got sick/robbed/place burns to the ground/hurricane/flood destroys it and suddenly needs the money he said he would never need. Prepare for a broad spectrum of possibilities. So you’ll have your food and supplies for short and medium periods of time where supermarkets may be closed due to looting, riots, lack of supply , etc and you have others plans in case things get worse or you are forced to get out of there. Something like what happened here happening in US? Don’t go nuts, shooting the neighbor’s kid for crossing over to your yard to pick up his frizzbe. Just adjust to the situation. Once the first few weeks are over and people start calming down, just be more careful out there, don’t throw away money on stuff you don’t need and try to keep a generally low profile. It’s also important to do well at work, because people get fired like crazy during those times, companies trying to reduce expenses or not needing you any more for lack of production. During these times is when your investments kick in. Not only do you have a place to exile to if things don’t go back to normal or they don’t fit what you expect in life anymore, you also have a form of income that is out of the circle of your local economy. Let’s say the dollar looses � it’s value, you still have your apartment in France or wherever the heck you want to invest, pumping in Euros that are now much more valuable, probably compensating for the local inflation, so weather you decide to leave or stay, you have the means to go either way. FerFAL http://ferfal.blogspot.com/ |
Re: Common prep mistakes-FerFAL
A good percpective for sure - from someone who lived in a SHTF environment.
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Re: Common prep mistakes-FerFAL
I particularly agree with him about small community making sense. There is more strength in that, or can be. Particularly if you aren't all picket fences lined up in a row.
Also the preparation of being armed is a no brainer for the prepared minded. As far as tools and small implements, as well as some other selected barter stocks, I wouldn't discourage it and depend on gold and silver covering everything. When it comes to tools however, if you have even a small parcel in a small community most tools you'd want for barter are also useful, and it sure doesn't hurt to have some back up for either yourself or barter. As far as TP, for instance, I agree with him in that people go overboard. It's a lot of bulk to store for the return on a trade IMO. Personal use for a time, yes. On the other hand, someone who had stored tobacco for say a year or there abouts, meaning sacks of tobacco and papers, could already be trading at a profit. So that was a good investment if one did that. Those are just examples of the best and not so best returns on stored merchandise. Good to see an article from this perspective. Thanks Keef. |
Re: Common prep mistakes-FerFAL
This guy is my hero...I especially love this part:
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Another great reason to simply go to your bank and buy $100 Brinks rolls of US nickels and stack them....They are still US currency, they almost have an exact face value of .05 cents and they are a great way to stack an easily obtainable cash resource. Don't be surprised if the US nickel is eliminated and/or the metal composition will be changed in the near future. But I digress... |
Re: Common prep mistakes-FerFAL
I absolutely love this as it sure makes common sense to me.
The only area I question is with 'common' items and their worth. When the SHTF and Inflation/HyperInflation hits, won't lots of items go dramatically up in price and some/most will simply disappear from the shelves? I say this, because I believe that about 80% of everything we see on the shelves comes from Imports. (China is the biggest importer) When the dollar goes in the terlit, I believe China and other importers will have little interest in continuing to Export to the USA with a worthless dollar. Just my opinion. Therefore won't lot's of these items actually become cherished, barter type items? The good side in my thinking is that it will once again force us to come together and start producing, thus sending that import number back down to a reasonable number.... Thanks, RK |
Re: Common prep mistakes-FerFAL
I think that's back to front.
If the dollar (and the GBP & some other western currencies) become almost valueless, east to west shipment volumes will fall even lower than they are now. The exporting countries will be keener than ever to shift their stuff. BUT they will want paying with whatever is then perceived as hard money, which might be metal or some new paper. We will find that prohibitively expensive toget hold of with our worthless paper. |
Re: Common prep mistakes-FerFAL
I take his advice with a grain of salt. Yes... he's actually lived through economic collapse, but it was far from a total societal collapse.
"TS" never really "HTF" like many of us think of it, as many social structures continued to function in Argentina. Shops stayed open, streetlights still worked, and food and other commodities kept flowing through the society, albeit in a limited (and often black-market) fashion. They even had partial electical service at times. I don't expect the U.S. to fare so well in our upcoming collapse. |
Re: Common prep mistakes-FerFAL
He makes several good points though. Arable land and water is a far better investment than metals. I disagree about storable goods like t.p. though, there's a heck of a good chance a collapse will affect energy which affects transport which affects what does or doesn't get delivered to the markets near you. Trucking shuts down, you're s.o.l. (no pun intended lol) also, condiments, ketchup, mustard, salt for sure, jams and bbq sauce, anything to make that bland diet more palatable will be valuable. If the US collapses it will be a financial collapse and the rest of the world will not export to the US what they have been, meaning anything you rely on to survive will be either extremely expensive or unavailable. E-money will be useless but FRNs will be worth a lot. The fed doesn't generate FRNs (it can't!) it only generates digits on a computer. So I would (if i were American) have land seeds salt bullets and band-aids. Then look at what will be worthwhile to have on hand in the event of a collapse.
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Re: Common prep mistakes-FerFAL
If you are really serious about financial security, diversify your real estate and other investments in different countries. My father did this and it made all the difference in the world. The man is my hero.
When you see serious trouble in the horizon and survivalists are thinking about bunkering in their cabins, you simply go on vacations to check out that little apartment or house you bought in Costa Rica for a bunch of pocket change a month. If Zombies take over or China invades, you can look for a job there, or live like a king thanks to the income you receive from that other apartment you have in France, a place in a small town near a mayor University, which you rent to students each year.600 Euros a month will allow you to live comfortably in Costa Rica, and most countries in South America. And the best part of all this? If nothing EVER happens you just have a few properties here and there that are constantly generating money for you, in case you want to retire early or if you ever have a health problem or any other issue that puts you out of the job market. Again, a couple of properties here and there inst’ such a big deal, most people can achieve that with a bit of effort, its’ just a matter of priorities. A few Questions: 1) Who is managing these investment on multiple continents??? 2) How are you keeping complient of all Tax laws and reporting regulations (Ala Switerland debacle) 3) NATIONALIZATION????? T |
Re: Common prep mistakes-FerFAL
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with the tools i have i can keep everything i have running myself...i consider tools, both carpentry and mechanical very important to have on hand for anyone that is self reliant...i can solder a broken water pipe, i can build a chicken coop, i can fix my own roof, repair the chain saw, repair my generator, my truck, the list goes on and on... if you can't maintain your own equipment you're in trouble... |
Re: Common prep mistakes-FerFAL
plus, tools would be a good barter item. Who was Agnut's friend/former Gimmer that was saying $1/nail could be had?
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Re: Common prep mistakes-FerFAL
A good set of fools should not be a SHTF item.
They should be an everyday item. I use mine almost every day. Best investments ever for me: 1. small diesel tractor with front end loaded. Doubles as my mower. 2. socket set 3. good set of high quality yard tools, rakes, shovels, etc... with fiberglass handles. 4. a good rechargeable utility spotlight 5. air compressor and assorted air tools and nailers 6. electrical meter. 7. cordless butane powered soldering iron with min blowtorch and heat shrink tips |
Re: Common prep mistakes-FerFAL
Keef -
If I understand you correctly, you are positing That your (my) money Should be entrusted/invested with 1.) The Gummint 2.) The Bankers 3.) The Stock Market 4.) Currency exchanges And by the way all of these "exchanges" are electronic these days. All of which will vanish like a mayfly in a hurricane when TSHTF. And so - Where's your money after the fact? To say, what is actually in your pocket? Just asking......... scyth |
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When all the electronic fiat goes poof, there will be so little real cash available compared. That is also when gold and silver will have tremendous gains. |
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Re: Common prep mistakes-FerFAL
Whether you agree with none, part, or all of the advice, it's good that these articles are discussed. I have personally found prepping to be a moving target, as one must make trade-off's to preparing for SHTF while dealing with the constraints of living in the current world, especially the constraints of time and money. Still, even if you can't act on every contingency, it's valuable to at least be aware of them.
Every response thus far has provided excellent food for thought. In particular, Gaillo, Brio, TA, TG, Argentos, EE, GoldWampum and Scyth have brought up valid concerns about the OP that I also share. I myself am having a hard time with his advice about "investments." Sure, I understand that the person with a 7-figure portfolio is going to be better off, at least initially, than the guy who has no savings. But I think he's making a lot of assumptions about what is going to happen in an economic collapse. Like assuming that your particular investments, because they're "low-medium risk," will be safe from a stock market crash. That the "money" you have in your portfolio will still be liquid (market/banking shutdown?) The assumption that the currency you have your investments in will retain its value. The assumption that only some fiat currencies will become worthless. The assumption that an economic downturn will not be global. I really have to wonder, as I don't know the answer myself. I mean, didn't the "rich" people during the Weimar inflation fare no better than anyone else? What about Zimbabwe? Did having $100,000 Zimbabwean dollars in the bank or under a mattress five years ago help anybody, when three years later tea for two at a hotel restaurant cost $18,000,000 ZD? Did the return on that original $100,000 ZD keep up with inflation? Was that amount augmented by adding another six zeroes to it when the currency was revalued? As for hard assets, I, like TA, wonder about the rental property plan. Personally, I think it's okay to buy a hard asset you can rent out, but only if you will be able to use it yourself. What happens when your renters are in that bottom 50% and lose their jobs and can't pay anymore? Or if they still have jobs, but they pay your rent with wheelbarrows full of government scrip with 6 or 9 zeroes on it, that won't buy a loaf of bread? What happens if they can't pay the rent but decide not to leave? Fer-Fal's assumption that we won't be going Mad Max, at least right away, bothers me. Unlikely, but we need to consider the possibility. As Brio alluded to, most developed countries have gone to the "just-in-time" inventory system. There are no warehouses or stockrooms, at least on the scale there used to be. All it will take is a hiccup in the fuel supply or something similar to result in almost immediate food shortages. If you've ever been in a hurricane area and seen what happens at the grocery store when they predict an Ivan or Katrina size storm making landfall within 5 days, just expand that to a global scale. That all said, I don't know what the hell will happen. I don't think it's foolish to stockpile food, tools, clothes and niceties. I do believe in guns and ammo, and I believe in PMs. I do believe in land - my "bug-out" property is in a sparsely populated area, but it's not remote. The people are honest and decent, and I doubt they'll allow outsiders to be about unchallenged if SHTF. Further, there's plenty of timber on it, and I have room to grow stuff, plant and animal. And it won't be a BO property forever - I plan on making it my permanent retreat once I reign in those time, money, job, and kid constraints. Still, there's that feeling in the back of my mind. I've converted about 75% of our non-retirement assets to PMs, but only about 10% of our retirement funds. And of course, those PMs in the retirement funds must be held by the custodian, so Ponce's Law applies there. What the hell to do? Again, it's good that we think about these things and consider options now - when SHTF, it's going to be too late. |
Re: Common prep mistakes-FerFAL
FerFal is cool.
He is a moderator on another board I frequent. |
Re: Common prep mistakes-FerFAL
I think it's funny that people think that the numbers they see on their statements is really there.
Where do you think the billions amassed by those in high finance and Wall Street came from, the tooth fairy? They are living like kings and have produced nothing except their ability to syphon off the real wealth of accounts without anybody noticing. The system is predicated on that only a small amount is is removed at a time. I also believe the markets have been operating in a vacuum from time to time, meaning there is no real cash behind accounts, and the only way people get money returned or paid back, is with the new money coming in. A gargantuan Ponzi scheme! |
Re: Common prep mistakes-FerFAL
I have to disagree with most of what Ferfal said.
I do not think it will be fitting for the S when it Hits the fan here in the US. It will be much different than what he has experienced. Interesting nonetheless.... |
Re: Common prep mistakes-FerFAL
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How you prep is YOUR business. Personally, I want to prep SMART. I am looking first at things I will use even if TS never HTF. Mostly food I will enjoy eating good times or bad. Gold/silver/guns/bullets.. no brainer. I have a couple generators, inverters, solar panels because I enjoy running them as a hobby. etc.. To each their own. My OP was to open the table for discussion and thought. Every one can learn from mistakes, smart people learn for OTHER people's mistakes.. Maybe owning a rental propety in costa rica wouldn't be such a bad idea. If martial law hits, it would be a good reason to scram.. Who knows? My ears are always open to the experience of folk who have lived through curreny collapses, it's just common sense. But just because I post something, doesn't mean I agree with every word. hahaha... I think your money should be in physical gold/silver, but that is not the point of this thread. Just trying to get people to think for themselves to make the best use of their time/resources. |
Re: Common prep mistakes-FerFAL
Very true about the dangers of rural isolation; driving over-the-road some of the worst ghettos that I've ever seen are in the rural areas.
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Re: Common prep mistakes-FerFAL
One point Ferfal made in his writings a few years back...he made a BIG-A$$ed mistake by not "investing" in gold or silver. :banghead:
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Re: Common prep mistakes-FerFAL
^^^^^^^^^ Plus I am looking at recent Vids of Aregentina at the time of the collapse (shot guerilla footage) and really dosent seem as bad as he stating JMO
Also people in Argentina seem to have recovered quite nicely( factories have gone back to work where their are NO BOSSES except the employees People avoid bank credit like the plauge cash payments for everything ....even houses) Why wont Ferfal do a piece on that?? He still makes it seem like a zombie waste land down there. I really dont like that he tries to cast that apperence. T |
Re: Common prep mistakes-FerFAL
TA, regarding Argentina, I know someone from my job who is from Argentina and still has family there.
According to his uncle, who owns a hardware store, the only big impact he felt when the currency went to poo was having to not price his goods. He would change the price of a hammer every day to match whatever price would be the going rate. All in all they were not hit that hard. At least according to the anecdotes of 1 regular guy. |
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Two brilliant points that I didnt want to see lost in the sea of good info here.:ok: T |
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This is what Im taking about. Ferfal is making it seem like you can still smell the rotting bodies of dead since the time of currency collapse. He really lost alot respect in my eyes. Alot. T |
Re: Common prep mistakes-FerFAL
Ferfal is full of shit, another wannabe who wants to sell his book. I was in Argentina for 3 months during the collapse - and it was nothing like he makes it out to be.
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Re: Common prep mistakes-FerFAL
important as referred to above that argentina was the only country at that time to collapse[financially]; like USSR was the only country to collapse when it did.
it was in no neighboring country's interest; or the world in general[especially with USSR having 2nd largest nuke arsenal] to let these countries move from financial collapse to societal, food, electric,... collapse. unfortunately i think because of oil depletion + fiat we only don't know the timing , & how fast to the food, electric, societal parts of collapse. could take years; not imo, but i apply the diversify for differing scenarios here. & most importantly there won't be the resources available for other countries to rescue one another. each country will be in -as said above; eventually a global industrial collapse, with some places better than others. ferfal's advice has been very important to me; but i think he is wrong generally about money because this global collapse will destroy global finance, & energy will make the world convert to a very local world. provocative thread keef. |
Re: Common prep mistakes-FerFAL
The article was a good read and some good points were made but if this is true then did the SHTF for fer fal if he was one of the upper middle class at the least? A 2 bedroom apartment in ZSpind in the country, about 200k, just a little out of my price range and if I had the money to start buying multiple properties isnt my money better off as gold coins in my hand where I have complete control of them 24/7?
Also how long did TSHTF in Argentina? How long did this crisis last. (Sorry I havent studied it completely.) If I need to bug out a pocket full of gold will get me just as far as an apartment overseas and I can rent in any country I choose vrs being stuck wherever my apartment is. Offer me a 200k apartment or 200 gold coins and I'll take the gold anyway. I know the next question is how do you move it? If you havent figured that out already then I guess your stuck here LOL. His advice to hang onto cash? HUH? Cash in a hyperinflationary scenario? Who's side is he on? AGain he has some good advice but some of it I have to question. Quote:
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